Transatlantic Trade Outlook Index
How healthy will the trading relationship between the United States and Europe be? This edition pairs conditions at publication with Hinsley’s AI forecast for twelve months later.
What the numbers mean
Why today’s reading is 59.5: The tariff deal is still in place and European retaliation is paused. But tariffs remain high and goods trade is down.
Why the forecast falls to 47.6: Hinsley projects growth in goods trade, but also continuing court fights over broad US tariffs and more conflict over European digital rules. Those risks outweigh the trade rebound.
Where things stand: The basic relationship still works. The deal is in place and European retaliation is paused. High tariffs and an 8.1% drop in goods trade keep the reading from being stronger.
What could change: Hinsley projects an improvement in goods trade. Its forecast also shows continued legal pressure on broad US tariffs, a greater chance that the tariff deal is partly suspended, and stronger US action against European digital rules.
The bottom line: More trade, but more legal and policy conflict. The conflict is expected to matter more, so the index falls 11.9 points.
Driver readings
| Driver | Weight | Current | Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Levels | 29/100 | 37.7 | 32.8 | −4.9 |
| Tariff Legal Basis | 14/100 | 65.0 | 47.1 | −18.0 |
| Agreement Status & Retaliation | 21/100 | 100.0 | 69.1 | −30.9 |
| Non-Tariff Friction | 21/100 | 70.0 | 34.8 | −35.2 |
| Trade Volume | 15/100 | 25.0 | 64.3 | +39.3 |
Forecast questions
| Question | Current observation | Current | Forecast | Forecast source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff rate on EU goods | 7.5% average tariff paid | 28.0 | 28.6 | Hinsley forecast |
| Tariff rate on UK goods | 6.4% average tariff paid | 55.0 | 44.3 | Hinsley forecast |
| Tariff rate on Swiss goods | 4.7% average tariff paid | 78.0 | 46.5 | Hinsley forecast |
| Legal status of broad US tariffs | In force with a material legal challenge pending | 65.0 | 47.1 | Hinsley forecast |
| Status of the EU-US tariff framework | In force; no Article 3 suspension act identified | 100.0 | 62.0 | Hinsley forecast |
| EU retaliatory measures | Adopted but suspended from 7 August 2026 | 100.0 | 82.2 | Hinsley forecast |
| US trade action on European digital regulation | Formal objection lodged; no investigation open | 70.0 | 34.8 | Hinsley forecast |
| Two-way goods trade volume | −8.1% year over year | 25.0 | 64.3 | Hinsley forecast |
Evidence and reproducibility
Current readings use published US merchandise data, official regulations, court records and USTR records available by the edition cutoff. The forward readings use the public Hinsley AI aggregate for each linked forecast question. Full calculation precision is preserved in the archived data; the page rounds only for display.